Register    Login    Forum    Chat     FAQ

Board index » Cougar Sports » Basketball




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 73 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:47 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:40 pm
Posts: 296
Not to be overly pedantic, but I'm pretty sure I'm right re KenPom's finals win % for a Hofstra NU match-up.

That or I may need a refresher course in regression analysis.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
Only one thing I am 99% sure of about this tourney. I will be there supporting them any game they play in

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:24 am 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:49 pm
Posts: 2890
Location: Savannah
[quote="Cougie Monster"]Not to be overly pedantic, but I'm pretty sure I'm right re KenPom's finals win % for a Hofstra NU match-up.

That or I may need a refresher course in regression analysis.[/quote]


While Ken may use regression in his rankings, that is simply a table of probabilities and not a regression analysis. That championship number for Hofstra is the chance of a team making the final times hofstras chance of beating them summed for every team on the other side of the bracket and that sum is then multiplied by hostras chance of making the final.

Even if you assume only the top four teams contribute meaningfully to the number, Hofstra's champ number is .691 (.538X +.377Y) where X and Y are Hofstra's chance to beat NU and CofC respectively.

_________________
http://coastalempirebeer.com

https://www.facebook.com/CEBC.Beer


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:25 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:40 pm
Posts: 296
Math Fight!!!

You're looking at the table the wrong way.

What KenPom is saying is that NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final - wherein they have a 69.1% chance of playing Hof and a 30.9% chance of playing a different team from that side of the bracket.

You have to weigh P-win (probability of win) with the % of the above scenarios. KenPom is saying Hof has a P-win of ~83% each game before the final, so let's use that as the weighted P-win if NU played those team in the final.

So now you are solving for the P-win of NU vs Hof.

The math string kinda looks like this:

NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final, where 30.9% of the time they will have a P-win of 82 and 70% of the time they will play Hofstra and have p-win of "X". If Ken Pom is saying they win the whole thing 31% of the time, the P-win for NU vs Hosftra has to be >50.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:45 pm 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:49 pm
Posts: 2890
Location: Savannah
Cougie Monster wrote:
Math Fight!!!

You're looking at the table the wrong way.

What KenPom is saying is that NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final - wherein they have a 69.1% chance of playing Hof and a 30.9% chance of playing a different team from that side of the bracket.

You have to weigh P-win (probability of win) with the % of the above scenarios. KenPom is saying Hof has a P-win of ~83% each game before the final, so let's use that as the weighted P-win if NU played those team in the final.

So now you are solving for the P-win of NU vs Hof.

The math string kinda looks like this:

NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final, where 30.9% of the time they will have a P-win of 82 and 70% of the time they will play Hofstra and have p-win of "X". If Ken Pom is saying they win the whole thing 31% of the time, the P-win for NU vs Hosftra has to be >50.



.309*.82+.691*X=.31

X = (.31-.309*.82)/.691

X = .082


Using your explanation and numbers it comes out to a pwin of 8. Using my explanation and your pwin of 82 for anyone else in the other side of the bracket, you get a pwin of 46.7 for NU vs. Hof. That's probably really close to what it is.


Forget the math, just use logic. Ken has Hof ranked higher than NU. The higher ranked team will always be favored on a neutral court in a ranking system like his. The advantage may be so slight that it is negligible (say 50 000001%). But the limit is a 50-50 game. He at most has NU chance as a pick'em.

_________________
http://coastalempirebeer.com

https://www.facebook.com/CEBC.Beer


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:36 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:42 pm
Posts: 191
who freakin cares about that dumb chart!!!! Win and advance. Just worried about Drexel Sunday night at 8:30 at the NCC and nothing else. We only control what we do and those stupid percentages can go away. #beatdrexel


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:41 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:16 pm
Posts: 5772
Location: Mt. Pleasant
That's more of a good liberal arts response.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:02 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
Seriously doubt that kenpom has watched a CAA game this years. He throws a bunch of numbers using his formula into a computer. The only numbers that matter are the ones showing the final score at the end of the game. My main concern at the moment is will our number be higher at the end of the game Sun night.

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:46 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:42 pm
Posts: 191
what is that chart going to for our guys? not a darn thing. That thing means nothing. I dont care if we win 1-0.... survive and advance is all that matters


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:05 pm 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:49 pm
Posts: 2890
Location: Savannah
What's wrong guys? Does looking at numbers and reading about statistics make your brains hurt? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

_________________
http://coastalempirebeer.com

https://www.facebook.com/CEBC.Beer


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:48 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:40 pm
Posts: 296
Is there a reason the CAA does the Saturday - Tuesday schedule? It seems to make more sense to do Friday - Monday and having the full 4 game slate on a Saturday as opposed to Sunday.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:01 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 4:55 pm
Posts: 669
Location: Chucktown
To get both the semifinals and finals on National TV.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:31 pm 
Offline

Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:11 pm
Posts: 488
CAA award recipients are out: Brantley and Riller both made First Team, but that's it for CofC. Wright-Foreman repeats as POY, Wynter ROY and Desure Buie wins DPOY.

https://caasports.com/news/2019/3/8/hof ... -year.aspx


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:18 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
cougarsurf11 wrote:
CAA award recipients are out: Brantley and Riller both made First Team, but that's it for CofC. Wright-Foreman repeats as POY, Wynter ROY and Desure Buie wins DPOY.

https://caasports.com/news/2019/3/8/hof ... -year.aspx


No surprise here. A nice surprise would be holding the championship trophy over their heads Tues night.

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:05 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 4:49 am
Posts: 1250
Location: back in the saddle
Pat Skerry led team finds another way to blow a late double digit lead.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:34 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
chascougs wrote:
Pat Skerry led team finds another way to blow a late double digit lead.


So the hamster clone strikes again

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:43 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:40 pm
Posts: 296
The CAA feed is so bad. I have a vested interest in the outcome of the UNCW game and the feed is making it unwatchable.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:19 am 
Offline

Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2017 5:02 am
Posts: 15
Location: Charlotte
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:28 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
Cougie Monster wrote:
The CAA feed is so bad. I have a vested interest in the outcome of the UNCW game and the feed is making it unwatchable.


My feed is good. Has been all year. I watch on roku on my tv. Can go back and rewatch every game

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Last edited by swampcougar1 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:34 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:40 pm
Posts: 296
cougarfan872 wrote:
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


I’d rather play Drexel in their current configuration than UNCW who, IMO under achieved relative to the talent on their roster.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:09 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
Official attendance session 1 2578. Not too bad considering Elon and Towson probably do not have over 50 each.

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:21 pm 
Online

Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 6:56 pm
Posts: 2465
Cougie Monster wrote:
cougarfan872 wrote:
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


I’d rather play Drexel in their current configuration than UNCW who, IMO under achieved relative to the talent on their roster.


I'm curious if any low seeds win today. Its distinctly possible. All 4 of them are capable of winning.

UNCWs young team may have been starting to fade but they had their bye week like us last week. So it was an opportunity to recharge the batteries a little.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:18 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
matrojan wrote:
Cougie Monster wrote:
cougarfan872 wrote:
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


I’d rather play Drexel in their current configuration than UNCW who, IMO under achieved relative to the talent on their roster.


I'm curious if any low seeds win today. Its distinctly possible. All 4 of them are capable of winning.

UNCWs young team may have been starting to fade but they had their bye week like us last week. So it was an opportunity to recharge the batteries a little.


Any of the lower seeds winning today would not surprise me.

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:51 pm 
Online

Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 6:56 pm
Posts: 2465
Man Hofstra was beatable today. JMU gave them a game though. Seemed like JMU had half dozen shots carom off the rim in that closing ten minutes.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CAA tourney
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:49 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2005 4:19 am
Posts: 7412
Location: James Island
One lower seed win. Official attendance session 2796.

_________________
You are who you are because you are who you want to be


Top 
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 73 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

Board index » Cougar Sports » Basketball


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 68 guests

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to: