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CAA tourney
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Author:  Cougie Monster [ Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Not to be overly pedantic, but I'm pretty sure I'm right re KenPom's finals win % for a Hofstra NU match-up.

That or I may need a refresher course in regression analysis.

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Only one thing I am 99% sure of about this tourney. I will be there supporting them any game they play in

Author:  GACoug [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

[quote="Cougie Monster"]Not to be overly pedantic, but I'm pretty sure I'm right re KenPom's finals win % for a Hofstra NU match-up.

That or I may need a refresher course in regression analysis.[/quote]


While Ken may use regression in his rankings, that is simply a table of probabilities and not a regression analysis. That championship number for Hofstra is the chance of a team making the final times hofstras chance of beating them summed for every team on the other side of the bracket and that sum is then multiplied by hostras chance of making the final.

Even if you assume only the top four teams contribute meaningfully to the number, Hofstra's champ number is .691 (.538X +.377Y) where X and Y are Hofstra's chance to beat NU and CofC respectively.

Author:  Cougie Monster [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Math Fight!!!

You're looking at the table the wrong way.

What KenPom is saying is that NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final - wherein they have a 69.1% chance of playing Hof and a 30.9% chance of playing a different team from that side of the bracket.

You have to weigh P-win (probability of win) with the % of the above scenarios. KenPom is saying Hof has a P-win of ~83% each game before the final, so let's use that as the weighted P-win if NU played those team in the final.

So now you are solving for the P-win of NU vs Hof.

The math string kinda looks like this:

NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final, where 30.9% of the time they will have a P-win of 82 and 70% of the time they will play Hofstra and have p-win of "X". If Ken Pom is saying they win the whole thing 31% of the time, the P-win for NU vs Hosftra has to be >50.

Author:  GACoug [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Cougie Monster wrote:
Math Fight!!!

You're looking at the table the wrong way.

What KenPom is saying is that NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final - wherein they have a 69.1% chance of playing Hof and a 30.9% chance of playing a different team from that side of the bracket.

You have to weigh P-win (probability of win) with the % of the above scenarios. KenPom is saying Hof has a P-win of ~83% each game before the final, so let's use that as the weighted P-win if NU played those team in the final.

So now you are solving for the P-win of NU vs Hof.

The math string kinda looks like this:

NE has a 53.8% chance of making the final, where 30.9% of the time they will have a P-win of 82 and 70% of the time they will play Hofstra and have p-win of "X". If Ken Pom is saying they win the whole thing 31% of the time, the P-win for NU vs Hosftra has to be >50.



.309*.82+.691*X=.31

X = (.31-.309*.82)/.691

X = .082


Using your explanation and numbers it comes out to a pwin of 8. Using my explanation and your pwin of 82 for anyone else in the other side of the bracket, you get a pwin of 46.7 for NU vs. Hof. That's probably really close to what it is.


Forget the math, just use logic. Ken has Hof ranked higher than NU. The higher ranked team will always be favored on a neutral court in a ranking system like his. The advantage may be so slight that it is negligible (say 50 000001%). But the limit is a 50-50 game. He at most has NU chance as a pick'em.

Author:  nvrgivup_gocougs [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

who freakin cares about that dumb chart!!!! Win and advance. Just worried about Drexel Sunday night at 8:30 at the NCC and nothing else. We only control what we do and those stupid percentages can go away. #beatdrexel

Author:  hungry [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

That's more of a good liberal arts response.

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Seriously doubt that kenpom has watched a CAA game this years. He throws a bunch of numbers using his formula into a computer. The only numbers that matter are the ones showing the final score at the end of the game. My main concern at the moment is will our number be higher at the end of the game Sun night.

Author:  nvrgivup_gocougs [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

what is that chart going to for our guys? not a darn thing. That thing means nothing. I dont care if we win 1-0.... survive and advance is all that matters

Author:  GACoug [ Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

What's wrong guys? Does looking at numbers and reading about statistics make your brains hurt? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Author:  Cougie Monster [ Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Is there a reason the CAA does the Saturday - Tuesday schedule? It seems to make more sense to do Friday - Monday and having the full 4 game slate on a Saturday as opposed to Sunday.

Author:  cofcbball3 [ Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

To get both the semifinals and finals on National TV.

Author:  cougarsurf11 [ Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

CAA award recipients are out: Brantley and Riller both made First Team, but that's it for CofC. Wright-Foreman repeats as POY, Wynter ROY and Desure Buie wins DPOY.

https://caasports.com/news/2019/3/8/hof ... -year.aspx

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

cougarsurf11 wrote:
CAA award recipients are out: Brantley and Riller both made First Team, but that's it for CofC. Wright-Foreman repeats as POY, Wynter ROY and Desure Buie wins DPOY.

https://caasports.com/news/2019/3/8/hof ... -year.aspx


No surprise here. A nice surprise would be holding the championship trophy over their heads Tues night.

Author:  chascougs [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Pat Skerry led team finds another way to blow a late double digit lead.

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

chascougs wrote:
Pat Skerry led team finds another way to blow a late double digit lead.


So the hamster clone strikes again

Author:  Cougie Monster [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

The CAA feed is so bad. I have a vested interest in the outcome of the UNCW game and the feed is making it unwatchable.

Author:  cougarfan872 [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Cougie Monster wrote:
The CAA feed is so bad. I have a vested interest in the outcome of the UNCW game and the feed is making it unwatchable.


My feed is good. Has been all year. I watch on roku on my tv. Can go back and rewatch every game

Author:  Cougie Monster [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

cougarfan872 wrote:
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


I’d rather play Drexel in their current configuration than UNCW who, IMO under achieved relative to the talent on their roster.

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Official attendance session 1 2578. Not too bad considering Elon and Towson probably do not have over 50 each.

Author:  matrojan [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Cougie Monster wrote:
cougarfan872 wrote:
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


I’d rather play Drexel in their current configuration than UNCW who, IMO under achieved relative to the talent on their roster.


I'm curious if any low seeds win today. Its distinctly possible. All 4 of them are capable of winning.

UNCWs young team may have been starting to fade but they had their bye week like us last week. So it was an opportunity to recharge the batteries a little.

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

matrojan wrote:
Cougie Monster wrote:
cougarfan872 wrote:
Wouldn't bet on it for sure, but how fun would it be if Cacok & Co., going out in a blaze of glory, take down NU?


I’d rather play Drexel in their current configuration than UNCW who, IMO under achieved relative to the talent on their roster.


I'm curious if any low seeds win today. Its distinctly possible. All 4 of them are capable of winning.

UNCWs young team may have been starting to fade but they had their bye week like us last week. So it was an opportunity to recharge the batteries a little.


Any of the lower seeds winning today would not surprise me.

Author:  matrojan [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

Man Hofstra was beatable today. JMU gave them a game though. Seemed like JMU had half dozen shots carom off the rim in that closing ten minutes.

Author:  swampcougar1 [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAA tourney

One lower seed win. Official attendance session 2796.

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